Out of the weeds? Reduced plant invasion risk with climate change in the continental United States

Allen, J. M., & Bradley, B. A. (2016). Out of the weeds? Reduced plant invasion risk with climate change in the continental United States. Biological Conservation, 203:306-312. PDF.

Summary

Climate change is causing species to shift their ranges poleward and upward in elevation to maintain suitable climate conditions. Similar range shifts have previously been predicted for individual invasive species. But, it was unknown whether there was a generalizable pattern of range shifts for all plants.  Allen & Bradley used species distribution models to project the potential range of 896 invasive plants within the continental U.S. under both current and future (2050) climate conditions.  They found that the northeast U.S. is a 'hotspot' for future plant invasion.  Upwards of 100 new invasive plants could  establish in the northeast with warming temperatures.  Many invasive plants could also expand their current known ranges under current climate conditions.  This comprehensive analysis provides a critical first step for risk assessments by identifying the future potential ranges of invasive plants in the U.S.

Take home points

  • The northeast U.S. is a hotspot of future plant invasion.  Many more species will be able to establish with climate change

  • Interested in a specific species?  The paper's supplementary dataset provides range shift maps for all 896 modeled species (warning - large file size!)

  • Projections for all 896 species are also available on EDDMapS. Click country records for your target invasive plant and use the ‘future range’ button to view expanded/maintained range and the ‘future certainty’ button to view consistency of future range based on model overlap.

Management implications

  • Range shift models can be used to produce watch lists of species that have not been reported in a management area, but could establish under current and/or future climate conditions

  • Increasing communication with our neighbors to the south will help to proactively identify and prioritize species for monitoring and management.  Their current problems are very likely to become our future problems.

Keywords

Novel Introduction Pathways; Range Expansion; Model; Invasive Plant; Terrestrial Habitat; Risk Assessment