Climate Voyager

an online tool for visualizing model-based future climate scenarios

You can find Climate Voyager here: http://climate.ncsu.edu/voyager/index.php

The Climate Voyager tool is developed and maintained by the State Climate Office of North Carolina. 

Summary

Climate Voyager provides maps of historical average and model-based future climate (temperature and precipitation) predictions for:

• USDA Hardiness Zones

• Summer temperatures

• Minimum temperature thresholds

• Summer precipitation

Climate voyager displays predictions in 20-year windows through 2100 for two carbon emission scenarios: current emissions (high) and reduced emissions.  It uses a 3-map layout to show a range of future climate predictions for the variables listed above. 

Behind the scenes, Climate Voyager uses ensemble modeling data and statistical techniques to create the displays of likely future climates.  The FAQ describes the methods in detail, and we have included a quick overview of potentially tricky points in the ‘Things to note’ below.

Three Things to Try with this Tool

• Check the predicted winter severity in your area by viewing the change in number of days with freezing temperatures.

• View the predicted 2080-2099 USDA hardiness zone for your area. For example, under a reduced carbon emission scenario the lowest likely predicted zone for Amherst MA is 6a, the mean predicted zone is 7a, and the highest likely zone is 7b. 

• Use the summer temperature and precipitation tools to contrast potential changes in temperature and precipitation in your management area.

Utility for Management

• View future climate predictions (temperature and precipitation) for your specific management area.  This could be useful to understand future climate impacts on the species already present in the management area.

• View the spatial pattern of regional changing climate patterns surrounding the specific management area.  This might be useful to anticipate future the movement of range-shifting species into your management area.

• The excellent maps could be useful in education and outreach efforts.

Resilient Land Mapping Tool

developed by the nature Conservancy

Visit the resilient land mapping tool: http://maps.tnc.org/resilientland/

Summary

Our next tool is the Resilient Land Mapping Tool, created by The Nature Conservancy to help decision-making in the face of climate change. This tool defines resilient and connected lands across the continental U.S. by providing scores for climate change resilience, landscape connectedness, and landscape diversity for both points and areas at a town-parcel scale.

While its interface is simple, the mapping behind this tool is nuanced. The first map layer calculates resilience based on “natural strongholds”– areas that are resilient to climate change because of their geophysical and biological diversity. A second map layer calculates landscape permeability, which is defined as how well organisms can move within regions of many land cover types. The resilience and landscape permeability maps combine to make the resilient and connected network map– providing information on biodiversity, connectedness, and resilient lands all in one place.

Three Things to Try with this Tool

• Get interactive summary statistics of resilience and connectedness for a parcel of land by uploading a shapefile, or by drawing your own polygon on the map.

• Look at the climate flow patterns for your town or county– are species range shifts through your area likely?

• Download the data to add your own spatial layers into the mix, and run your own analyses.

Utility for Management

• Identifying resilient lands can guide decisions on land acquisition, restoration, and management practices.

• Because some land cover types– such as urban areas– impede organism movement and thereby landscape permeability, predicting how climate-shifting species move across the land is useful to conservation.

• Predicting areas of high flow of range-shifting species can help identify potential invasion corridors. 

• Visit this site for more resources on the map and its potential uses.

Don’t Move Firewood

Online resources for preventing the spread of forest pests

It’s August, and many people are heading out on camping trips as a pandemic-friendly vacation option and looking forward to evenings around a campfire. Now is a good time for a refresher on information and tools available to inform campers about why they should not move firewood.  This week’s tool summary reviews the great information and outreach materials available on The Nature Conservancy’s ‘Don’t Move Firewood’ website (https://www.dontmovefirewood.org/). 

Summary

Invasive insects and diseases are a major threat to forest trees, and the Northeast is an invasion hotspot. One thing everyone can do to slow the spread of invasive species is to use local firewood for wood stoves, fireplaces, and camping trips. Don’t Move Firewood is an outreach campaign managed by The Nature Conservancy, and involves many non-profit, state, and federal partners.

Three Things to Try with this Tool

• Download free posters to share with your stakeholders. You can work with Don’t Move Firewood campaign managers to develop customized outreach materials for your land.

• Search or browse the comprehensive species profiles of invasive forest insects and diseases

• Consider the similarities and differences in firewood regulations among the Northeastern states and provinces

Utility for Management

• Outreach materials with attractive graphic design and customizable messaging, including Spanish and French versions

• Platform to connect with professionals across the United States and Canada; you can sign up for periodic newsletters and blog posts, or check out archived posts here

• If you manage land in New Hampshire or Maine, links to the Firewood Scout site can help locate local and/or heat-treated firewood

NELF Explorer

New England Landscape Futures Explorer

The New England Landscape Futures Explorer is brought to you by Harvard Forest and the 100+ citizens who helped define this project.  Funding for this project comes from the National Science Foundation and from Highstead. See website for full details.

Visit the New England Landscape Futures Explorer: https://newenglandlandscapes.org/

Summary

In this Tool Summary we introduce the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) Explorer from the Harvard Forest, a department of Harvard University.  This tool explores the simulation of five different possible land use futures for New England, as articulated by stakeholders from throughout the region, for every decade from 2010 through 2060.  One of these scenarios is the business as usual scenario, or the continuation of recent trends in land-use patterns (e.g., forest loss due to development). The other four scenarios represent divergent alternative scenarios that incorporate multiple changes to land use, including planning for the consequences of climate change.  For more detailed information on the scenarios, see the Voices from the Land publication or the storymap that guides you through the details of each scenario.

You can use this explorer to compare how different land-use scenarios impact concerns for management such as development or connectivity in different regions of the Northeast.  For example, a scenario with higher rates of low density development may create more pathways for invasive species movement than a scenario with higher rates of conservation.  Check out these land use maps in your area to see which communities might be impacted by future land use decisions more than others.

Three Things to Try with this Tool

• Look at the change in land use from 2010 to 2060 for just Recent Trends in a county you are familiar with - what are the biggest changes?

• Get interactive summary statistics of changes to land cover for a familiar town or watershed and compare across scenarios.

• Explore the impacts of a scenario on a key metric, such as priority conservation areas.

Utility for Management

• Observing the range of implications that future land-use decisions have on the landscape can help prioritize areas for conservation or monitoring.

• Areas that see more development may subsequently see more introduction pathways for invasive species, but also a reduction in movement corridors for native species.  These may be areas to increase monitoring and management.

  Visit this site for more resources and help for the NELF Explorer and examples of its uses.
  

Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS)

A database developed by the United States Geological Service (USGS)

The NAS information resource website is developed and maintained by the United States Geological Service (USGS).

You can find the Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) website here: https://nas.er.usgs.gov/default.aspx

Summary

The NAS database is an established central information resource for spatially referenced biogeographic accounts of introduced aquatic species. The NAS website provides scientific reports, real-time queries, spatial data sets, distribution maps, fact sheets, and other general information about nonindigenous aquatic species.

This data repository is highly interactive in that it provides information management using geographic information system (GIS) technology as well as occurrence detection and reporting obtained from a variety of sources such as researchers, field biologists, fishermen, and others involved in activities in the aquatic environment. You can use this database to view reported sightings that may impact concerns for management in different regions throughout the US. Additionally, you can receive timely reporting of possible new nonindigenous aquatic species and prompt dissemination of confirmed reports about the presence, or changes in distribution.

Three Things to Try with this Tool

• Use the NAS database to find an aquatic species present in your state/county that interests you. Next, view the point map to see its current spatial distribution as well as the animated map to see its spread over time!

• Sign up for the NAS Alert System! This can be tailored to your specific needs and location.

• Check out the Flood and Storm Tracker (FaST) maps to see where indigenous species have the potential to spread due to storm surge and flooding.

Utility for Management

• Search your local area for the exact locations of sightings and sign up for alert notifications when new sightings of nonindigenous species appear in your area

• View the spatial distribution of nonindigenous species surrounding the specific management area. This might be useful to anticipate future the movement of nonindigenous species into your management area.

• The excellent maps could be useful in education and outreach efforts.

OIPMC Degree-day Calculator

You can find OIPMC Degree-day Calculator here: https://uspest.org/dd/model_app

The OIPMC Degree-day Calculator is developed and maintained by uspest.org at Oregon State University’s Integrated Plant Protection Center.

Summary:

This tool provides a model estimate of phenological events based on degree days. This calculator, which has an agricultural focus, provides models for a selection of plants, insects, and pathogens. Several species invasive to the northeast and biocontrol species are included, such as:

Itadori (Japanese) knotweed (Fallopia japonica)

Wild parsnip (Pastinaca sativa)

Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis)

Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica)

Spongy moth (Lymantria dispar)

Spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) 

Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis)

Japanese knotweed psyllid (Aphalara itadori)

Black-margined loosestrife beetle (Galerucella calmariensis)

The OIPMC Degree-Day calculator uses public climate and weather data to calculate degree days that influence the timing of biological events like flowering and egg-laying.

First, you select their location in the “Station” tab. By clicking through to the “Model” tab, you can then select a general degree-day model or pick a species. Next, input dates and select a weather/climate forecast - you can choose to look at past averages, previous years’ weather, or choose from one of two future forecasting models.

The calculator then displays information about the model source and validity in the Output tab. You can also see a table of phenological events by degree day. Finally, the calculator displays an interactive graph of the model results under the Graph tab. The graph shows past degree days and predicted future degree days, with dots representing the predicted timing of phenological events. 

Behind the scenes, the calculator uses many sources for species models, which are identified in the “Model” tab. You can also learn more about the models and methods by clicking the “i” information buttons. Weather data come from public weather stations and the degree day calculation uses maximum and minimum temperatures. Of the future weather forecasts, users can choose between NMME or CFSv2. The NMME forecast is based on several models including the CFSv2. Here is a deep dive into the differences between the two options if you really want to get into the weeds (no pun intended!). 

Things to Try with this Tool:

• Estimate when phenological events (e.g., emergence, flowering) will happen for a species in your area.

• Check whether the past predictions for a species in your area line up with your own records or recollections.

• Compare the predictions based on 1981-2010 average temperature with those based on observed weather patterns for 2024.

• Download model data as a CSV for further use.

Keep in Mind:
The species models used haven’t all been validated to the same degree. You can see the validation status on the Model tab. Additionally, some species phenological models were developed for other regions and may be less accurate in the Northeast. Weather forecasting will continue to change throughout the year and season and will be more accurate for shorter timescales. 

Utility for Management:

View future degree day predictions for your specific management area and for species of relevance. This could be useful to plan management actions. 

See how degree days have changed in the past and are likely to continue to change due to climate change to inform longer-term strategies.

Video Introduction & Tutorial:

Check out the Tools Summaries and Tutorials playlist on our YouTube channel for a tutorial on how to use the OIPMC Degree-day calculator.

• Navigating the website

• Viewing historical averages

• Viewing predictions for degree days generally and for individual species

• Exploring and downloading data